论文标题
足球：对团队韧性和伯尔尼奇迹的定量分析
Soccer: a quantitative analysis of team resilience and the miracle of Bern
论文作者
论文摘要
弹性是对逆境做出积极反应的能力。它已经在心理学领域进行了数十年的研究，重点是个人如何克服创伤或应对职业生涯中的挫折和障碍。在体育环境下对弹性的研究是相当新的。活动基于在竞争激烈的环境中的见解，而微小的效果则尖锐。测量运动中弹性的关键问题是要测量的参数。在这里提出了一个新颖的概念来衡量足球队的韧性。确定了比赛的相对频率，其中一支最初落后2个进球的足球队最终成功赢得了比赛或至少达到平局。该分析应用于德国总理足球联盟德甲联赛的最后59个赛季。将经验数据与来自泊松分布的理论模型进行了比较。据展示，总理足球联赛中的领先球队与平均弹性方面有何不同，这提供了对顶级足球队隐藏秘密的进一步见解。
Resilience is the ability to positively respond to adversity. It has been studied in psychology for several decades, with focus on how individuals overcome traumata or cope with setbacks and obstacles in their professional career. Research on resilience in the sport context is rather new. Activities are based on insights that in highly competitive environments, tiny effects tip the scales. A key question of measuring resilience in sports is what parameters to measure. Here a novel concept is proposed to measure the resilience of soccer teams. The relative frequency of matches is determined, where a soccer team, which is initially trailing by 2 goals, finally succeeds to win the match or at least to reach a draw. The analysis is applied to the last 59 seasons of the German premier soccer league Bundesliga. The empirical data are compared with a theoretical model derived from Poisson distributions. It is shown how leading teams in the premier soccer league differ from the average with respect to resilience, which provides further insights into the hidden secrets of top soccer teams.
