论文标题
共同繁殖数量的日常活性依赖性19 COVID-19大流行：GPS数据的直接建模
Daily-activity-dependency of effective reproduction number in COVID-19 pandemic: direct modelling from GPS data
论文作者
论文摘要
在199日大流行期间，政府在实施行动限制措施方面面临困难，因为众所周知，人类流动性与感染之间没有明确的定量关系。我们开发了一个模型，该模型可以通过为东京大都市地区使用智能手机GPS数据来定量对各个地方和活动的感染风险进行定量估计。有效的繁殖数直接根据每个位置的种群密度平方定义的传染性社会接触数量直接计算。考虑到日常活动的感染率的差异，在某个地方或工作场所的“居住”活动的差异是其他活动的28倍以上。同样，对感染的贡献很大程度上取决于位置。我们暗示，如果限制了最高风险的位置或活动，则有效的繁殖数量足够抑制。我们还讨论了三角洲变体和疫苗接种的影响。
During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments faced difficulties in implementing mobility restriction measures, as no clear quantitative relationship between human mobility and infection spread in large cities is known. We developed a model that enables quantitative estimations of the infection risk for individual places and activities by using smartphone GPS data for the Tokyo metropolitan area. The effective reproduction number is directly calculated from the number of infectious social contacts defined by the square of the population density at each location. The difference in the infection rate of daily activities is considered, where the `stay-out' activity, staying at someplace neither home nor workplace, is more than 28 times larger than other activities. Also, the contribution to the infection strongly depends on location. We imply that the effective reproduction number is sufficiently suppressed if the highest-risk locations or activities are restricted. We also discuss the effects of the Delta variant and vaccination.
