论文标题
我们可以将空间验证方法整合到大气科学的神经网络损失功能中吗?
Can we integrate spatial verification methods into neural-network loss functions for atmospheric science?
论文作者
论文摘要
在过去的十年中,大气科学方面的许多工作都集中在用于栅格预测的空间验证(SV)方法上,这克服了Pixelwise验证的严重缺点。但是,即使最终使用SV方法评估,大气科学中的神经网络(NN)几乎总是经过训练以优化Pixelwise损失功能。这在训练后与模型验证之间建立了断开连接。为了解决这个问题,我们开发了空间增强的损失功能(自我),并证明了它们在现实世界中的使用:预测与NNS的雷暴发生(此后,“对流”)。在每个自我中,我们使用一个邻滤器,该邻居滤波器以大于阈值大的尺度突出显示对流,或者是光谱过滤器(使用傅立叶或小波分解),该滤镜更灵活,并且在两个阈值之间的尺度上突出显示对流。我们使用这些过滤器来增强公共验证分数,例如Brier评分。我们用不同的自我训练每个NN,并在许多尺度的对流(从离散的风暴细胞到热带气旋)中进行比较。在我们的许多发现中,(a)对于低(高)风险阈值,理想的自我专注于小(大)尺度; (b)经过像素方向损失功能训练的模型表现出色; (c)但是,经过光谱过滤器训练的模型比PixelWise模型产生的概率要好得多。我们提供了使用自我的一般指南,包括技术挑战和最终的Python代码,并证明了它们在对流问题中的使用。据我们所知,这是地球科学中最深入的自我指南。
In the last decade, much work in atmospheric science has focused on spatial verification (SV) methods for gridded prediction, which overcome serious disadvantages of pixelwise verification. However, neural networks (NN) in atmospheric science are almost always trained to optimize pixelwise loss functions, even when ultimately assessed with SV methods. This establishes a disconnect between model verification during vs. after training. To address this issue, we develop spatially enhanced loss functions (SELF) and demonstrate their use for a real-world problem: predicting the occurrence of thunderstorms (henceforth, "convection") with NNs. In each SELF we use either a neighbourhood filter, which highlights convection at scales larger than a threshold, or a spectral filter (employing Fourier or wavelet decomposition), which is more flexible and highlights convection at scales between two thresholds. We use these filters to spatially enhance common verification scores, such as the Brier score. We train each NN with a different SELF and compare their performance at many scales of convection, from discrete storm cells to tropical cyclones. Among our many findings are that (a) for a low (high) risk threshold, the ideal SELF focuses on small (large) scales; (b) models trained with a pixelwise loss function perform surprisingly well; (c) however, models trained with a spectral filter produce much better-calibrated probabilities than a pixelwise model. We provide a general guide to using SELFs, including technical challenges and the final Python code, as well as demonstrating their use for the convection problem. To our knowledge this is the most in-depth guide to SELFs in the geosciences.