论文标题

与疫苗接种的扩展SEIRD模型合并:在卡塔尔的COVID-19

Incorporating Interventions to an Extended SEIRD Model with Vaccination: Application to COVID-19 in Qatar

论文作者

Amona, Elizabeth B, Ghanam, Ryad A, Boone, Edward L, Sahoo, Indranil, Abu-Raddad, Laith J

论文摘要

2020年的Covid-19爆发要求许多政府为政策和计划目的开发和采用大流行的数学统计模型。为此,这项工作提供了有关使用易感,暴露,感染,恢复,死亡和接种(SEIRDV)状态的隔间模型的教程。拟议的模型使用干预措施来量化各种政府尝试减缓病毒传播的影响。此外,该疫苗接种参数还包括在模型中,直到部署疫苗的时间为止。贝叶斯框架可同时执行参数估计和预测。做出预测以确定何时发生峰值活性感染。我们提供了推论框架,以评估政府干预对大流行动态进展的影响,包括疫苗接种的影响。提出的模型还允许量化由于疫苗接种导致的研究期间避免过多死亡的数量。

The Covid-19 outbreak of 2020 has required many governments to develop and adopt mathematical-statistical models of the pandemic for policy and planning purposes. To this end, this work provides a tutorial on building a compartmental model using Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered, Deaths and Vaccinated (SEIRDV) status through time. The proposed model uses interventions to quantify the impact of various government attempts made to slow the spread of the virus. Furthermore, a vaccination parameter is also incorporated in the model, which is inactive until the time the vaccine is deployed. A Bayesian framework is utilized to perform both parameter estimation and prediction. Predictions are made to determine when the peak Active Infections occur. We provide inferential frameworks for assessing the effects of government interventions on the dynamic progression of the pandemic, including the impact of vaccination. The proposed model also allows for quantification of number of excess deaths averted over the study period due to vaccination.

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