论文标题
贝叶斯估算游戏内联赛赢得大学篮球的可能性
Bayesian estimation of in-game home team win probability for college basketball
论文作者
论文摘要
提出了两种新的贝叶斯估算和预测游戏内胜利概率的方法。第一种方法具有先验，该方法是根据铅差分和经过时间的函数进行调整。第二个是第一个的调整后版本，其中调整是贝叶斯估算器的线性组合，具有时间加权的赛前胜利概率。将提出的方法与现有方法进行了比较，显示新方法在估计和预测方面的性能更好。该公用事业是通过2016年NCAA Division 1 Championship游戏的申请进行说明的。
Two new Bayesian methods for estimating and predicting in-game home team win probabilities are proposed. The first method has a prior that adjusts as a function of lead differential and time elapsed. The second is an adjusted version of the first, where the adjustment is a linear combination of the Bayesian estimator with a time-weighted pre-game win probability. The proposed methods are compared to existing methods, showing the new methods perform better for both estimation and prediction. The utility is illustrated via an application to the 2016 NCAA Division 1 Championship game.
