论文标题

COVID-19的数学建模研究参考了从城市到农村人口的移民

A Mathematical Modeling Study of COVID-19 With Reference to Immigration from Urban to Rural Population

论文作者

Vamsi, D. K. K., Chhetri, C. Bishal, Prakash, D. Bhanu, Ch., Seshasainath, Pandey, D. Surabhi

论文摘要

在这项研究中,我们在印度场景中提到了Covid-19的动力学的非线性隔室模型(SEIR),以实现Covid-19的动力学。我们已经捕获了移民的影响,这是在模型的农村区室中造成的两个独立因素。我们首先确定了解决方案的阳性以及解决方案的界限,然后是该多隔室模型的解决方案的存在和独特性。后来,我们继续找出系统的等效,并得出了繁殖数。此外,我们从数字上描述了平衡的局部和全球稳定性。后来,我们对模型参数进行了灵敏度分析,并确定了系统的敏感参数。灵敏度分析随后是两个参数热图,该热图处理了系统的敏感参数。这些热图为我们提供了系统稳定的参数区域。最后,参考对照干预措施(例如疫苗接种,抗病毒药物,免疫疗法)进行了比较和有效性研究。

In this study, we have formulated and analyzed a non-linear compartmental model (SEIR) for the dynamics of COVID-19 with reference to immigration from urban to rural population in Indian scenario. We have captured the effect of the immigration as two separate factors contributing in the rural compartments of the model. We have first established the positivity of the solution and the boundedness of the solution followed by the existence and uniqueness of the solution for this multi compartment model. We later went on to find out the equibria of the system and derived the reproduction number. Further we numerically depicted the local and global stability of the equilibria. Later we have done sensitivity analysis of the model parameters and identified the sensitive parameters of the system. The sensitivity analysis is followed up with the two parameter heat plots dealing with the sensitive parameters of the system. These heat plots gives us the parameter regions in which the system is stable. Finally comparative and effectiveness studies were done with reference to the control interventions such as Vaccination, Antiviral drugs, Immunotheraphy.

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