论文标题

MACK-NET模型:将Mack的模型与复发性神经网络混合

Mack-Net model: Blending Mack's model with Recurrent Neural Networks

论文作者

Ramos-Pérez, Eduardo, Alonso-González, Pablo J., Núñez-Velázquez, José Javier

论文摘要

在一般保险公司中,正确估计负债起着对管理和投资决策的影响,起着关键作用。自2007 - 2008年的金融危机和加强法规以来,重点不仅放在总储备金上,而且放在其可变性上,这是公司承担的风险的指标。因此,将盈利能力与风险联系起来的措施对于了解保险公司的财务状况至关重要。利用了日益增长的计算能力,本文介绍了一个随机保留模型,其目的是通过应用复发性神经网络的集合来提高传统MACK保留模型的性能。结果表明,将传统保留模型与深入和机器学习技术融合会导致对一般保险责任的更准确评估。

In general insurance companies, a correct estimation of liabilities plays a key role due to its impact on management and investing decisions. Since the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 and the strengthening of regulation, the focus is not only on the total reserve but also on its variability, which is an indicator of the risk assumed by the company. Thus, measures that relate profitability with risk are crucial in order to understand the financial position of insurance firms. Taking advantage of the increasing computational power, this paper introduces a stochastic reserving model whose aim is to improve the performance of the traditional Mack's reserving model by applying an ensemble of Recurrent Neural Networks. The results demonstrate that blending traditional reserving models with deep and machine learning techniques leads to a more accurate assessment of general insurance liabilities.

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