论文标题

非正常互动会产生社会经济泡沫

Non-Normal Interactions Create Socio-Economic Bubbles

论文作者

Didier, Sornette, Lera, Sandro, Lin, Jianhong, Wu, Ke

论文摘要

在社交网络中,活动爆发通常是由相互作用剂之间的模仿行为引起的。 Ising模型及其在社会科学中的变体是通过其关键特性来解释这些现象的基础框架。我们提出了一种替代通用机制,用于在广泛的基于代理的模型中出现集体旺盛。我们表明,我们的模型不需要对临界点进行微调,就像使用ISING模型及其变体解释活动爆发一样。取而代之的是,我们的方法取决于社会经济网络的内在非对称和分层组织。这些非正态网络即使在亚临界体系中,这些非正态网络也会在广泛的控制参数中表现出短暂的和不可持续的潮流,从而消除了对关键点的人为 - 可以说是人工 - 微调的接近。为了从经验上验证我们的框架,我们检查了模因股票的行为,并在金融气泡的大小和网络中的非正常程度之间建立了直接联系,这是由克里斯常数量化的。我们提出的机制提出了一种替代方案,该替代方法比各种社会系统中不稳定性的普遍概念更为一般。

In social networks, bursts of activity often result from the imitative behavior between interacting agents. The Ising model, along with its variants in the social sciences, serves as a foundational framework to explain these phenomena through its critical properties. We propose an alternative generic mechanism for the emergence of collective exuberance within a broad class of agent-based models. We show that our model does not require the fine-tuning to a critical point, as is commonly done to explain bursts of activity using the Ising model and its variants. Instead, our approach hinges on the intrinsic non-symmetric and hierarchical organization of socio-economic networks. These non-normal networks exhibit transient and unsustainable surges in herd behavior across a wide range of control parameters even in the subcritical regime, thereby eliminating the need for the - arguably artificial - fine-tuning proximity to a critical point. To empirically validate our framework, we examine the behavior of meme stocks and establish a direct linkage between the size of financial bubbles and the degree of non-normality in the network, as quantified by the Kreiss constant. Our proposed mechanism presents an alternative that is more general than prevailing conceptions of instabilities in diverse social systems.

扫码加入交流群

加入微信交流群

微信交流群二维码

扫码加入学术交流群,获取更多资源