论文标题
了解将无偏见和可能有偏见的估计器与因果推理相结合的风险和回报
Understanding the Risks and Rewards of Combining Unbiased and Possibly Biased Estimators, with Applications to Causal Inference
论文作者
论文摘要
统计数据中的几个问题涉及将高空无偏估计器与低变化估计器的组合组合,这些估计量仅在强有力的假设下是公正的。一个值得注意的例子是,在将小型实验数据集与较大的观察数据集相结合时,因果效应的估计。即使低相位估计量的偏差尚不清楚,还有一系列有关如何执行这种组合的最新建议。 为了建立对竞争方法的不同权衡的直觉,我们主张检查每种方法的有限样本估计误差,这是未知偏见的函数。这包括了解偏见阈值 - 仅使用无偏估计器而改善给定方法的最大偏差。尽管这是镜头,但我们回顾了一些最新的建议,并在模拟中观察到不同的方法在质上表现出不同的行为。 我们还引入了一种简单的替代方法,该方法在模拟中与最近的替代方案进行了比较,具有更高的偏见阈值,并且通常在最佳表现(当偏差为零)和最差的表现之间(当偏见是对手选择的时选择)之间的更为保守的权衡。更广泛地说,我们证明,对于任何数量的(未知)偏差,该估计器的MSE可以以透明的方式界定,这取决于正在组合的基础估计器的方差 /协方差。
Several problems in statistics involve the combination of high-variance unbiased estimators with low-variance estimators that are only unbiased under strong assumptions. A notable example is the estimation of causal effects while combining small experimental datasets with larger observational datasets. There exist a series of recent proposals on how to perform such a combination, even when the bias of the low-variance estimator is unknown. To build intuition for the differing trade-offs of competing approaches, we argue for examining the finite-sample estimation error of each approach as a function of the unknown bias. This includes understanding the bias threshold -- the largest bias for which a given approach improves over using the unbiased estimator alone. Though this lens, we review several recent proposals, and observe in simulation that different approaches exhibits qualitatively different behavior. We also introduce a simple alternative approach, which compares favorably in simulation to recent alternatives, having a higher bias threshold and generally making a more conservative trade-off between best-case performance (when the bias is zero) and worst-case performance (when the bias is adversarially chosen). More broadly, we prove that for any amount of (unknown) bias, the MSE of this estimator can be bounded in a transparent way that depends on the variance / covariance of the underlying estimators that are being combined.