论文标题
社区网络中大流行的通用模型和疫苗接种的作用
A generic model for pandemics in networks of communities and the role of vaccination
论文作者
论文摘要
口号“没有人是安全的,直到每个人都安全”是一个提高认识的要求,即在相互联系的世界中,诸如covid-19之类的大流派需要全球方法。在持续的Covid-19大流行中,我们在这里对病毒在相互联系的社区中的传播进行建模,并探索不同的疫苗接种场景,假设疫苗接种的功效随着时间的推移而逐渐减弱。我们从易感人群开始,并考虑一个易感性接种疫苗感染的反射模型,该模型具有未接种疫苗(“青铜”),中度接种疫苗(“银”),并且通过不同类型的网络通过散布的差异固定线性连接到本地播种。我们表明,在考虑“青铜” - “黄金”和“青铜” - “银”社区中的互动时,“铜”社区正在推动“银”和“黄金”社区的感染增加。这表明非疫苗接种社区的有害,单向效应。关于网络中“黄金”,“银”和“青铜”群落之间的相互作用,我们发现两个因素起着核心作用:动态和网络密度的耦合强度。当考虑到Barabási-Albert网络中病毒的传播时,“银”和“黄金”社区的感染低于“青铜”社区。我们发现,“黄金”社区是保持其感染水平较低的最佳选择。但是,少数“青铜”社区足以使中度和疫苗接种良好的社区的感染增加。当研究病毒在密集的Erdős-rényi以及稀疏的Watts-Strogatz和Barabási-Albert网络中的传播时,这些社区在密集的Erdős-rényi网络中达到了无疾病状态,但在稀疏的Watts-Watts-Strogatz和Barabásii-Albert网络中却没有。但是,我们还发现,如果所有这些网络...
The slogan "nobody is safe until everybody is safe" is a dictum to raise awareness that in an interconnected world, pandemics such as COVID-19, require a global approach. Motivated by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, we model here the spread of a virus in interconnected communities and explore different vaccination scenarios, assuming that the efficacy of the vaccination wanes over time. We start with susceptible populations and consider a susceptible-vaccinated-infected-recovered model with unvaccinated ("Bronze"), moderately vaccinated ("Silver") and very well vaccinated ("Gold") communities, connected through different types of networks via a diffusive linear coupling for local spreading. We show that when considering interactions in "Bronze"-"Gold" and "Bronze"-"Silver" communities, the "Bronze" community is driving an increase in infections in the "Silver" and "Gold" communities. This shows a detrimental, unidirectional effect of non-vaccinated to vaccinated communities. Regarding the interactions between "Gold", "Silver" and "Bronze" communities in a network, we find that two factors play central role: the coupling strength in the dynamics and network density. When considering the spread of a virus in Barabási-Albert networks, infections in "Silver" and "Gold" communities are lower than in "Bronze" communities. We find that the "Gold" communities are the best in keeping their infection levels low. However, a small number of "Bronze" communities are enough to give rise to an increase in infections in moderately and well-vaccinated communities. When studying the spread of a virus in a dense Erdős-Rényi, and sparse Watts-Strogatz and Barabási-Albert networks, the communities reach the disease-free state in the dense Erdős-Rényi networks, but not in the sparse Watts-Strogatz and Barabási-Albert networks. However, we also find that if all these networks...