论文标题

基于深度学习的空间仿真基于代理的模拟器在城市中的大流行

Deep Learning-based Spatially Explicit Emulation of an Agent-Based Simulator for Pandemic in a City

论文作者

Madhavan, Varun, Mitra, Adway, Chakrabarti, Partha Pratim

论文摘要

基于代理的模型对于模拟物理或社会过程非常有用,例如在城市中传播大流行。这样的模型是通过指定个人(代理)及其相互作用的行为,并根据城市的地理和人口统计学的这种相互作用来参数感染过程。但是,这样的模型在计算上非常昂贵,并且复杂性通常在代理总数中是线性的。这严重限制了此类模型的使用情况,这些模型通常必须运行数百次,以进行策略计划甚至模型参数估计。一种替代方法是开发模拟器,一种替代模型,可以根据其初始条件和参数来预测基于代理的模拟器的输出。在本文中,我们讨论了基于扩张的卷积神经网络的深度学习模型,该模型可以高精度地模拟基于代理的模型。我们表明,使用该模型而不是基于原始代理的模型为我们提供了模拟速度的重大收益,从而使观察结果更快地校准以及更广泛的方案分析。我们认为的模型在空间上是显式的,因为模拟了受感染个体的位置而不是总数。我们的仿真框架的另一个方面是其分裂和争议的方法将城市分为几个小的重叠块,并进行了仿真,然后将这些结果融合在一起。这样可以确保与原始模拟器相比,同一模拟器可以适用于任何规模的城市,并提供模拟器的时间复杂性的显着改善。

Agent-Based Models are very useful for simulation of physical or social processes, such as the spreading of a pandemic in a city. Such models proceed by specifying the behavior of individuals (agents) and their interactions, and parameterizing the process of infection based on such interactions based on the geography and demography of the city. However, such models are computationally very expensive, and the complexity is often linear in the total number of agents. This seriously limits the usage of such models for simulations, which often have to be run hundreds of times for policy planning and even model parameter estimation. An alternative is to develop an emulator, a surrogate model that can predict the Agent-Based Simulator's output based on its initial conditions and parameters. In this paper, we discuss a Deep Learning model based on Dilated Convolutional Neural Network that can emulate such an agent based model with high accuracy. We show that use of this model instead of the original Agent-Based Model provides us major gains in the speed of simulations, allowing much quicker calibration to observations, and more extensive scenario analysis. The models we consider are spatially explicit, as the locations of the infected individuals are simulated instead of the gross counts. Another aspect of our emulation framework is its divide-and-conquer approach that divides the city into several small overlapping blocks and carries out the emulation in them parallelly, after which these results are merged together. This ensures that the same emulator can work for a city of any size, and also provides significant improvement of time complexity of the emulator, compared to the original simulator.

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