论文标题

模块化保形校准

Modular Conformal Calibration

论文作者

Marx, Charles, Zhao, Shengjia, Neiswanger, Willie, Ermon, Stefano

论文摘要

必须校准不确定性估计值(即准确)和清晰(即信息性),以便有用。这激发了各种重新校准的方法,这些方法使用固定数据将未校准的模型转化为校准模型。但是,由于原始模型也是概率模型,因此现有方法的适用性受到限制。我们在回归中引入了一种用于重新校准的算法类别,我们称为模块化保形校准(MCC)。该框架使人们可以将任何回归模型转换为校准的概率模型。 MCC的模块化设计使我们能够对现有算法进行简单调整,以实现良好的分配预测。我们还为MCC算法提供有限样本的校准保证。我们的框架恢复了等渗的重新校准,保形校准和整形间隔预测,这意味着我们的理论结果也适用于这些方法。最后,我们对17个回归数据集进行了MCC的经验研究。我们的结果表明,在我们的框架中设计的新算法实现了接近完美的校准,并相对于现有方法提高了清晰度。

Uncertainty estimates must be calibrated (i.e., accurate) and sharp (i.e., informative) in order to be useful. This has motivated a variety of methods for recalibration, which use held-out data to turn an uncalibrated model into a calibrated model. However, the applicability of existing methods is limited due to their assumption that the original model is also a probabilistic model. We introduce a versatile class of algorithms for recalibration in regression that we call Modular Conformal Calibration (MCC). This framework allows one to transform any regression model into a calibrated probabilistic model. The modular design of MCC allows us to make simple adjustments to existing algorithms that enable well-behaved distribution predictions. We also provide finite-sample calibration guarantees for MCC algorithms. Our framework recovers isotonic recalibration, conformal calibration, and conformal interval prediction, implying that our theoretical results apply to those methods as well. Finally, we conduct an empirical study of MCC on 17 regression datasets. Our results show that new algorithms designed in our framework achieve near-perfect calibration and improve sharpness relative to existing methods.

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