论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Modeling Oceanic Variables with Dynamic Graph Neural Networks
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
Researchers typically resort to numerical methods to understand and predict ocean dynamics, a key task in mastering environmental phenomena. Such methods may not be suitable in scenarios where the topographic map is complex, knowledge about the underlying processes is incomplete, or the application is time critical. On the other hand, if ocean dynamics are observed, they can be exploited by recent machine learning methods. In this paper we describe a data-driven method to predict environmental variables such as current velocity and sea surface height in the region of Santos-Sao Vicente-Bertioga Estuarine System in the southeastern coast of Brazil. Our model exploits both temporal and spatial inductive biases by joining state-of-the-art sequence models (LSTM and Transformers) and relational models (Graph Neural Networks) in an end-to-end framework that learns both the temporal features and the spatial relationship shared among observation sites. We compare our results with the Santos Operational Forecasting System (SOFS). Experiments show that better results are attained by our model, while maintaining flexibility and little domain knowledge dependency.