论文标题
具有两个因故障模式的审查可靠性数据的模型和未来失败的预测
A Model for Censored Reliability Data with Two Dependent Failure Modes and Prediction of Future Failures
论文作者
论文摘要
我们经常会观察到可靠性数据，两种可能相互影响的故障模式，从而导致依赖性故障模式。在这里，我们通过使用具有不同形状参数的双变量Weibull模型来讨论具有两个因故障模式的审查可靠性数据的建模，我们将其构建为可靠性中著名的Marshall-Olkin双变量指数模型的扩展。讨论了通过使用所提出的具有不同形状参数的拟议的双变量的威布尔分布来模拟具有两个因故障模式的审查可靠性数据的可能性推断。还讨论了有关此问题的贝叶斯分析。通过蒙特卡洛模拟研究，观察到所提出的推理方法可提供令人满意的结果。可靠性工程师的实际兴趣问题是预测将来单位的现场故障。在这种审查可靠性数据的情况下，开发了用于预测未来失败的常见主义和贝叶斯方法，并具有两种相关故障模式。提出了基于两种故障模式的设备故障的真实数据的说明性示例。本文介绍的模型和方法提供了对模型的审查可靠性数据的完整，全面的处理，并解决了两种依赖性故障模式，并解决了一些实际的预测问题。
Quite often, we observe reliability data with two failure modes that may influence each other, resulting in a setting of dependent failure modes. Here, we discuss modelling of censored reliability data with two dependent failure modes by using a bivariate Weibull model with distinct shape parameters which we construct as an extension of the well-known Marshall-Olkin bivariate exponential model in reliability. Likelihood inference for modelling censored reliability data with two dependent failure modes by using the proposed bivariate Weibull distribution with distinct shape parameters is discussed. Bayesian analysis for this issue is also discussed. Through a Monte Carlo simulation study, the proposed methods of inference are observed to provide satisfactory results. A problem of practical interest for reliability engineers is to predict field failures of units at a future time. Frequentist and Bayesian methods for prediction of future failures are developed in this setting of censored reliability data with two dependent failure modes. An illustrative example based on a real data on device failure with two failure modes is presented. The model and methodology presented in this article provide a complete and comprehensive treatment of modelling censored reliability data with two dependent failure modes, and address some practical prediction issues.
