论文标题

随机迁移率驱动于空间驱动的SEIQRD COVID-19型模型,带有VOC,季节性和疫苗

A Stochastic Mobility-Driven Spatially Explicit SEIQRD COVID-19 Model with VOCs, Seasonality, and Vaccines

论文作者

Alleman, Tijs W., Rollier, Michiel, Vergeynst, Jenna, Baetens, Jan M.

论文摘要

在这项工作中,我们扩展了比利时先前开发的SARS-COV-2室SEIQRD模型。我们在模型中引入了关注,疫苗和季节性的SARS-COV-2变体,因为它们的增加对于在比利时的2020-2021 Covid-19期间对SARS-COV-2传输动力学进行建模所必需。该模型在地理上分层为11个空间贴片(省),比利时最大的运营商提供的电信数据集用于结合省际移动性。我们使用每个省和血清学数据的每日住院数量来校准该模型。我们发现该模型充分描述了这些数据,但是对于获得比利时的2020-2021 SARS-COV-2大流行的准确描述,不需要添加跨疗法的迁移率。我们进一步证明了如何使用我们的模型来帮助决策者决定释放社会限制的最佳时机。我们发现,与等效的民族级别模型相比,通过地理分层来增加空间异质性会导致更不确定的模型预测,该模型既具有交流优势又具有缺点。我们最终讨论了在特定省施加当地流动性或社会接触限制以遏制流行病的影响,并发现降低社会接触比降低流动性更有效。

In this work, we extend our previously developed compartmental SEIQRD model for SARS-CoV-2 in Belgium. We introduce SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern, vaccines, and seasonality in our model, as their addition has proven necessary for modelling SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics during the 2020-2021 COVID-19 pandemic in Belgium. The model is geographically stratified into eleven spatial patches (provinces), and a telecommunication dataset provided by Belgium's biggest operator is used to incorporate interprovincial mobility. We calibrate the model using the daily number of hospitalisations in each province and serological data. We find the model adequately describes these data, but the addition of interprovincial mobility was not necessary to obtain an accurate description of the 2020-2021 SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Belgium. We further demonstrate how our model can be used to help policymakers decide on the optimal timing of the release of social restrictions. We find that adding spatial heterogeneity by geographically stratifying the model results in more uncertain model projections as compared to an equivalent nation-level model, which has both communicative advantages and disadvantages. We finally discuss the impact of imposing local mobility or social contact restrictions to contain an epidemic in a given province and find that lowering social contact is a more effective strategy than lowering mobility.

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