学术文献库

Severe geomagnetic storms appear to be ordered by the solar cycle in a number of ways. They occur more frequently close to solar maximum and declining phase, are more common in larger solar cycles and show different patterns of occurrence in odd- and even-numbered solar cycles. Our knowledge of the most extreme space weather events, however, comes from the spikes in cosmogenic-isotope ($^{14}$C, $^{10}$Be and $^{36}$Cl) records that are attributed to significantly larger solar energetic particle (SEP) events than have been observed during the space age. Despite both storms and SEPs being driven by solar eruptive phenomena, the event-by-event correspondence between extreme storms and extreme SEPs is low. Thus it should not be assumed a priori that the solar cycle patterns found for storms also hold for SEPs and the cosmogenic-isotope events. In this study we investigate the solar cycle trends in the timing and magnitude of the 67 SEP ground-level enhancements (GLEs) recorded by neutron monitors since the mid 1950s. Using a number of models of GLE occurrence probability, we show that GLEs are around a factor four more likely around solar maximum than around solar minimum, and that they preferentially occur earlier in even-numbered solar cycles than in odd-numbered cycles. There are insufficient data to conclusively determine whether larger solar cycles produce more GLEs. Implications for putative space-weather events in the cosmogenic-isotope records are discussed. We find that GLEs tend to cluster within a few tens of days, likely due to particularly productive individual active regions, and with approximately 11-year separations, owing to the solar cycle ordering. But these timescales do not explain cosmogenic-isotope spikes which require multiple extreme SEP events over consecutive years.