论文标题

热带森林 - 格拉斯兰景观的新兴结构和动态

Emergent structure and dynamics of tropical forest-grassland landscapes

论文作者

Wuyts, Bert, Sieber, Jan

论文摘要

先前的工作表明,热带森林可以作为Savanna的另一种稳定状态存在。因此,气候变化或人类影响的扰动可能会导致临界点的跨越,超过该临界点,森林迅速消失不容易逆转。这种保养性的假设机制是火与植被之间的反馈,其中大火作为草斑的传染过程传播。理论模型在很大程度上通过假设火势扩散对易燃植被的阈值依赖性,从而在很大程度上隐含地实现了这种机制。在这里,我们展示了非线性动力学和双重性是如何自发出现的,而无需假设射击的方程式或阈值。我们发现森林几何形状会导致诱导双重性的非线性。我们通过三个步骤演示这一点。首先,我们使用细胞自动机对草斑的相互作用过程进行建模,以作为森林的相互作用过程,表明空间结构是由于对森林周长的两种抵抗影响而出现的:森林扩散,而森林侵蚀造成邻近草原的森林侵蚀。然后,我们得出了一个景观尺度平衡方程,其中这两种效果将森林几何形状和动态联系起来:森林与其周边成比例地扩展,而它与相邻草地地区加权的周长成比例地缩小。最后,我们表明这些外围数量在我们的平衡方程式中引入了非线性并导致双重性。依靠结构与动态之间的联系,我们提出了一个森林弹性指标,可用于靶向保护或恢复。

Previous work indicates that tropical forest can exist as an alternative stable state to savanna. Therefore, perturbation by climate change or human impact may lead to crossing of a tipping point beyond which there is rapid forest dieback that is not easily reversed. A hypothesised mechanism for such bistability is a feedback between fire and vegetation, where fire spreads as a contagion process on grass patches. Theoretical models have largely implemented this mechanism implicitly, by assuming a threshold dependence of fire spread on flammable vegetation. Here, we show how the nonlinear dynamics and bistability emerge spontaneously, without assuming equations or thresholds for fire spread. We find that the forest geometry causes the nonlinearity that induces bistability. We demonstrate this in three steps. First, we model forest and fire as interacting contagion processes on grass patches, %using a cellular automaton showing that spatial structure emerges due to two counteracting effects on the forest perimeter: forest expansion by dispersal, and forest erosion by fires originating in adjacent grassland. Then, we derive a landscape-scale balance equation in which these two effects link forest geometry and dynamics: forest expands proportionally to its perimeter, while it shrinks proportionally to its perimeter weighted by adjacent grassland area. Finally, we show that these perimeter quantities introduce nonlinearity in our balance equation and lead to bistability. Relying on the link between structure and dynamics, we propose a forest resilience indicator that could be used for targeted conservation or restoration.

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