论文标题

比较单位火车与明显火车,以便有危险材料的铁路运输风险 - 第二部分:应用和案例研究

Comparing Unit Trains versus Manifest Trains for the Risk of Rail Transport of Hazardous Materials -- Part II: Application and Case Study

论文作者

Kang, Di, Zhao, Jiaxi, Dick, C. Tyler, Liu, Xiang, Bian, Zheyong, Kirkpatrick, Steven W., Lin, Chen-Yu

论文摘要

基于风险分析方法(在第一部分论文中介绍),本文重点是应用这种方法。使用了五种说明性场景来分析最佳或最坏情况,并比较使用单位火车和明显火车的服务选项之间的运输风险差异。比较结果表明,如果将所有油罐车都放置在脱轨概率最低的位置,并且如果在分类码中单独换车,则在相同的运输需求(即,运输的坦克车数量)中,它可以提供最低的风险估计值。本文还表明,根据案例研究中的数据和参数,到达/出发事件期间的风险和院子切换事件可能与主线上的风险一样重要。本文提供了一种使用风险分析方法来进行铁路安全决策的方法。该方法及其应用可以针对特定的基础架构和滚动库存特征量身定制。

Built upon the risk analysis methodology (presented in the part I paper), this part II paper focuses on applying this methodology. Five illustrative scenarios were used to analyze the best or worst cases and compare the transportation risk differences between service options using unit trains and manifest trains. The comparison results indicate that if all tank cars are placed at the positions with the lowest probability of derailing and if switching tank cars alone in classification yards, it could provide the lowest risk estimate given the same transportation demand (i.e., number of tank cars to transport). This paper also shows that based on the data and parameters in the case study, risks during arrival/departure events and yard switching events could be as significant as risks that on mainlines. This paper provides a way to use the risk analysis methodology for rail safety decisions. The methodology and its application can be tailored to specific infrastructure and rolling stock characteristics.

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