论文标题
使用保形胜利概率来预测被取消的2020 NCAA篮球比赛的获胜者
Using Conformal Win Probability to Predict the Winners of the Cancelled 2020 NCAA Basketball Tournaments
论文作者
论文摘要
19020年男子和女子全国大学体育协会（NCAA）1篮球比赛的男子和女子篮球比赛。从取消1级比赛和任何未完成的会议锦标赛的地步开始，我们为每支制作1分区1锦标赛的团队提供了封闭式的概率，如果他们没有被取消，并通过使用共形预测分布来帮助。鉴于比赛范围，我们还提供了一支球队赢得三月疯狂的概率。然后，我们将具有共形预测分布产生的单场赢概率（恰当地命名为保形胜利概率）与通过线性和逻辑回归产生的七年历史学院篮球数据，特别是从2014-2015赛季到2020-2021赛季生成的单次获胜概率。证明保形胜利概率比其他方法更好地校准，从而导致更准确的获胜概率估计，同时需要更少的分布假设。
The COVID-19 pandemic was responsible for the cancellation of both the men's and women's 2020 National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) Division 1 basketball tournaments. Starting from the point at which the Division 1 tournaments and any unfinished conference tournaments were cancelled, we deliver closed-form probabilities for each team of making the Division 1 tournaments, had they not been cancelled, aided by use of conformal predictive distributions. We also deliver probabilities of a team winning March Madness, given a tournament bracket. We then compare single-game win probabilities generated with conformal predictive distributions, aptly named conformal win probabilities, to those generated through linear and logistic regression on seven years of historical college basketball data, specifically from the 2014-2015 season through the 2020-2021 season. Conformal win probabilities are shown to be better calibrated than other methods, resulting in more accurate win probability estimates, while requiring fewer distributional assumptions.
