论文标题
使用快速,可扩展的高斯工艺(MUYGP)的光曲线完成和预测
Light curve completion and forecasting using fast and scalable Gaussian processes (MuyGPs)
论文作者
论文摘要
明显大小的时间变化(称为光曲线)是望远镜在长时间内捕获的感兴趣的观察统计。光曲线提供了空间域意识(SDA)目标(例如对象识别或姿势估计)作为潜在变量推理问题等目标的探索。与较高的精确仪器相比,从货架上商业架(COTS)相机的地面观察结果保持廉价,但是,有限的传感器可用性与嘈杂的观测值相结合,可能会产生可能难以建模的Gappy时间序列数据。这些外部因素混淆了对光曲线的自动开采,这使光曲线预测和外推成为应用的关键问题。传统上,使用基于扩散或基于示例的方法解决了图像或时间序列的完成问题。最近,由于学习复杂的非线性嵌入方面的经验成功,深层神经网络(DNNS)已成为首选工具。但是,DNN通常需要大量的培训数据,这些数据不一定在查看单个卫星的光曲线的独特功能时可用。 在本文中,我们提出了一种新的方法,可以使用高斯过程(GPS)预测光曲线的缺失和未来数据点。 GP是非线性概率模型,可推断后验分布,而自然量化不确定性。但是,GP推理和培训的立方缩放是其在应用中采用的主要障碍。特别是,单个光曲线可以具有数十万个观测值,这远远超出了单台计算机上常规GP的实际实现极限。因此,我们采用MUYGP,这是一种可扩展的框架,用于使用最近的邻居稀疏和局部交叉验证的GP模型的超参数估计。 muygps ...
Temporal variations of apparent magnitude, called light curves, are observational statistics of interest captured by telescopes over long periods of time. Light curves afford the exploration of Space Domain Awareness (SDA) objectives such as object identification or pose estimation as latent variable inference problems. Ground-based observations from commercial off the shelf (COTS) cameras remain inexpensive compared to higher precision instruments, however, limited sensor availability combined with noisier observations can produce gappy time-series data that can be difficult to model. These external factors confound the automated exploitation of light curves, which makes light curve prediction and extrapolation a crucial problem for applications. Traditionally, image or time-series completion problems have been approached with diffusion-based or exemplar-based methods. More recently, Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have become the tool of choice due to their empirical success at learning complex nonlinear embeddings. However, DNNs often require large training data that are not necessarily available when looking at unique features of a light curve of a single satellite. In this paper, we present a novel approach to predicting missing and future data points of light curves using Gaussian Processes (GPs). GPs are non-linear probabilistic models that infer posterior distributions over functions and naturally quantify uncertainty. However, the cubic scaling of GP inference and training is a major barrier to their adoption in applications. In particular, a single light curve can feature hundreds of thousands of observations, which is well beyond the practical realization limits of a conventional GP on a single machine. Consequently, we employ MuyGPs, a scalable framework for hyperparameter estimation of GP models that uses nearest neighbors sparsification and local cross-validation. MuyGPs...