论文标题
迈向血迹模式分析的可能性比率方法
Towards a Likelihood Ratio Approach for Bloodstain Pattern Analysis
论文作者
论文摘要
在这项工作中，我们探讨了似然比作为评估血迹模式因果机制的法医证据评估工具的应用。假定关于血迹模式的原因有两个相互竞争的假设。血迹模式表示为椭圆的集合，每个椭圆形的位置，大小和方向为特征。定量测量和特征是为了总结模式的关键方面。选择双变量高斯模型以估计给定假设下特征的分布，从而近似模式的可能性。具有59种影响模式和55个枪击模式的已发布数据用于训练和评估模型。结果证明了血迹模式分析的似然比方法的可行性。结果还暗示了一些挑战需要解决的一些挑战，以便将来使用似然比方法进行血迹模式分析。
In this work, we explore the application of likelihood ratio as a forensic evidence assessment tool to evaluate the causal mechanism of a bloodstain pattern. It is assumed that there are two competing hypotheses regarding the cause of a bloodstain pattern. The bloodstain patterns are represented as a collection of ellipses with each ellipses characterized by its location, size and orientation. Quantitative measures and features are derived to summarize key aspects of the patterns. A bivariate Gaussian model is chosen to estimate the distribution of features under a given hypothesis and thus approximate the likelihood of a pattern. Published data with 59 impact patterns and 55 gunshot patterns is used to train and evaluate the model. Results demonstrate the feasibility of the likelihood ratio approach for bloodstain pattern analysis. The results also hint at some of the challenges that need to be addressed for future use of the likelihood ratio approach for bloodstain pattern analysis.
