论文标题
在选民模型中影响的影响及其在检测政治选举的重大干预方面的应用
Effect of influence in voter models and its application in detecting significant interference in political elections
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中，我们研究了根据二元选民模型对矢量值评估的投票干预措施的效果，在该模型中，每个选民都将投票表示为$ 0-1 $ $ $的随机变量，可以在两个候选人之间进行选择。我们认为结果取决于多数功能，这对于民主制度是正确的。一词干预措施包括计数错误，报告违规行为，选举弊端等。我们的重点是分析干预对最终结果的影响。我们构建统计检验，以检测两种情况下的选举中的明显不规则性，其中一个可用，而在与导致干预措施相关的成本函数的假设下，可以进行民意调查数据。还得出了有关测试程序一致性的相关理论结果。通过一项详细的仿真研究，我们表明测试程序具有良好的功能，并且在各种环境中都具有强大的功能。我们还对三个现实数据集实施了我们的方法。该应用程序提供了与现有知识一致的结果，并确定该方法可以用于与政治选举有关的关键问题。
In this article, we study the effect of vector-valued interventions in votes under a binary voter model, where each voter expresses their vote as a $0-1$ valued random variable to choose between two candidates. We assume that the outcome is determined by the majority function, which is true for a democratic system. The term intervention includes cases of counting errors, reporting irregularities, electoral malpractice etc. Our focus is to analyze the effect of the intervention on the final outcome. We construct statistical tests to detect significant irregularities in elections under two scenarios, one where exit poll data is available and more broadly under the assumption of a cost function associated with causing the interventions. Relevant theoretical results on the consistency of the test procedures are also derived. Through a detailed simulation study, we show that the test procedure has good power and is robust across various settings. We also implement our method on three real-life data sets. The applications provide results consistent with existing knowledge and establish that the method can be adopted for crucial problems related to political elections.
