论文标题
关于太阳周期的强度和持续时间25：一种新型的基于分位数的超塑性时期分析
On the Strength and Duration of Solar Cycle 25: A Novel Quantile-based Superposed Epoch Analysis
论文作者
论文摘要
黑子数（SSN）是一个重要的 - 尽管有细微差别 - 可以用作太阳活动的间接度量。即将到来的活动间隔（包括太阳能最大的峰值和时间安排）的预测对太空天气计划具有重要意义。太阳周期25强度的预测差异很大，从非常弱，到记录历史上最强的周期之一。在这项研究中，我们开发了一种新型基于分位数的超跨时期分析，可以每月更新，目前预测太阳周期25将是一个非常适度的周期（在所有编号周期的第25个百分位以内），每月每月（13个月的平均平均水平）可能会在12月进行验证，即在20224年的模型中进行验证。前24个周期，发现它执行了基线（参考）模型（平均周期）的时间75％。
Sunspot number (SSN) is an important - albeit nuanced - parameter that can be used as an indirect measure of solar activity. Predictions of upcoming active intervals, including the peak and timing of solar maximum can have important implications for space weather planning. Forecasts for the strength of solar cycle 25 have varied considerably, from it being very weak, to one of the strongest cycles in recorded history. In this study, we develop a novel quantile based superposed epoch analysis that can be updated on a monthly basis, and which currently predicts that solar cycle 25 will be a very modest cycle (within the 25th percentile of all numbered cycles), with a monthly-averaged (13-month average) peak of - 130 (110) likely occurring in December, 2024. We validate the model by performing retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) for the previous 24 cycles, finding that it out performs the baseline (reference) model (the average cycle) 75% of the time.
