论文标题
使用贝叶斯分层多量模型对湍流的有效预测
Efficient prediction of turbulent flow quantities using a Bayesian hierarchical multifidelity model
论文作者
论文摘要
湍流的高保真尺度解析模拟迅速变得非常昂贵,尤其是在雷诺数高的数字上。作为一种补救措施,我们可能会使用多重模型(MFM)来构建利益流量量(QOIS)的预测模型,以进行不确定性量化,数据融合和优化。对于湍流的数值模拟,有一个按准确性和成本排名的方法层次结构,其中包括几个数值/建模参数,可控制所得输出的预测准确性和鲁棒性。与这些规格兼容,当前的分层MFM策略允许在Goh等人开发的贝叶斯框架中同时校准特定于特异性的参数。 2013年。多重模型的目的是通过以任何数量的保真度水平以最佳方式组合较低和更高的保真度数据来提供改进的预测;甚至为由此产生的QOI提供置信区间。首先在说明性的玩具问题上证明了我们的多重模型模型的功能,然后将其应用于与工程动荡流有关的三种现实案例。后者包括在湍流通道流动中不同雷诺数上对摩擦的预测,对标准机翼攻击范围的空气动力系数的预测以及对湍流中湍流中分离气泡的不确定性繁殖和敏感性分析,而湍流的周期性不属于地球性质丘陵的周期性流量。在所有情况下,仅基于少数几个高保真数据样本(通常是直接数值模拟,DNS),多倍率模型会导致对QOI的准确预测,并伴随着置信度的估计。在每种情况下,与地面真相相比,UQ和灵敏度分析的结果也很准确。
High-fidelity scale-resolving simulations of turbulent flows quickly become prohibitively expensive, especially at high Reynolds numbers. As a remedy, we may use multifidelity models (MFM) to construct predictive models for flow quantities of interest (QoIs), with the purpose of uncertainty quantification, data fusion and optimization. For numerical simulation of turbulence, there is a hierarchy of methodologies ranked by accuracy and cost, which include several numerical/modeling parameters that control the predictive accuracy and robustness of the resulting outputs. Compatible with these specifications, the present hierarchical MFM strategy allows for simultaneous calibration of the fidelity-specific parameters in a Bayesian framework as developed by Goh et al. 2013. The purpose of the multifidelity model is to provide an improved prediction by combining lower and higher fidelity data in an optimal way for any number of fidelity levels; even providing confidence intervals for the resulting QoI. The capabilities of our multifidelity model are first demonstrated on an illustrative toy problem, and it is then applied to three realistic cases relevant to engineering turbulent flows. The latter include the prediction of friction at different Reynolds numbers in turbulent channel flow, the prediction of aerodynamic coefficients for a range of angles of attack of a standard airfoil, and the uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis of the separation bubble in the turbulent flow over periodic hills subject to the geometrical uncertainties. In all cases, based on only a few high-fidelity data samples (typically direct numerical simulations, DNS), the multifidelity model leads to accurate predictions of the QoIs accompanied with an estimate of confidence. The result of the UQ and sensitivity analyses are also found to be accurate compared to the ground truth in each case.