论文标题
可解释的预测性决策用于运营支持
Explainable Predictive Decision Mining for Operational Support
论文作者
论文摘要
业务流程中存在几个决策点(例如,采购订单是否需要经理的批准),并且根据其特征对不同的流程实例做出了不同的决定(例如,购买订单高于500美元,需要经理批准)。过程挖掘中的决策挖掘旨在在过程的决策点描述/预测过程实例的路由。通过预测决定,可以采取主动行动来改善过程。例如,当瓶颈在可能的决定之一中发展时,就可以预测决定并绕过瓶颈。但是,尽管具有巨大的运营支持潜力,但现有的决策挖掘技术主要集中在描述决策上,而不是预测决策,而是部署决策树以产生逻辑表达来解释决定。在这项工作中,我们旨在增强决策挖掘的预测能力,以通过部署更高级的机器学习算法来实现主动的运营支持。我们提出的方法提供了使用Shap值支持主动行动的启发的预测决策的解释。我们已经实施了一个Web应用程序来支持所提出的方法,并使用该实现评估了该方法。
Several decision points exist in business processes (e.g., whether a purchase order needs a manager's approval or not), and different decisions are made for different process instances based on their characteristics (e.g., a purchase order higher than $500 needs a manager approval). Decision mining in process mining aims to describe/predict the routing of a process instance at a decision point of the process. By predicting the decision, one can take proactive actions to improve the process. For instance, when a bottleneck is developing in one of the possible decisions, one can predict the decision and bypass the bottleneck. However, despite its huge potential for such operational support, existing techniques for decision mining have focused largely on describing decisions but not on predicting them, deploying decision trees to produce logical expressions to explain the decision. In this work, we aim to enhance the predictive capability of decision mining to enable proactive operational support by deploying more advanced machine learning algorithms. Our proposed approach provides explanations of the predicted decisions using SHAP values to support the elicitation of proactive actions. We have implemented a Web application to support the proposed approach and evaluated the approach using the implementation.