论文标题

SIRDVW多码模型控制SARS-COV-2疫苗的优化数值解决方案:对意大利方案的应用

Optimized numerical solutions of SIRDVW multiage model controlling SARS-CoV-2 vaccine roll out: an application to the Italian scenario

论文作者

Ziarelli, Giovanni, Dede', Luca, Parolini, Nicola, Verani, Marco, Quarteroni, Alfio

论文摘要

在SARS-COV-2大流行的背景下,数学建模在进行预测,模拟场景和评估预防性政治,社会和药品措施的影响方面发挥了基本作用。最佳控制理论可以是基于固体数学基础的有用工具,以尽可能快地消除大流行的方向计划疫苗接种运动。这项工作的目的是探索计划能够实现特定目标的疫苗接种活动的最佳优先级命令,因为在年龄段之间,在固定的时间范围内减少了受感染,已故和住院的数量。为此,我们引入了一个分层的SIR样流行病隔室模型,该模型定居在一个抽象框架中,用于对两剂疫苗接种运动进行建模,并以Covid19疾病的描述进行了构想。总体而言,我们通过对疫苗剂量管理行动作用,将采用该模型作为状态问题的最佳控制框架进行形式化。在意大利方案中介绍的数字测试的广泛活动,并根据Dipartimento di Protezione Civile Italiana进行了校准,表明所呈现的框架可以是支持疫苗计划的有价值工具,以最大程度地减少特定目标。

In the context of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, mathematical modelling has played a fundamental role for making forecasts, simulating scenarios and evaluating the impact of preventive political, social and pharmaceutical measures. Optimal control theory can be a useful tool based on solid mathematical bases to plan the vaccination campaign in the direction of eradicating the pandemic as fast as possible. The aim of this work is to explore the optimal prioritisation order for planning vaccination campaigns able to achieve specific goals, as the reduction of the amount of infected, deceased and hospitalized in a fixed time frame, among age classes. For this purpose, we introduce an age stratified SIR-like epidemic compartmental model settled in an abstract framework for modelling two-doses vaccination campaigns and conceived with the description of COVID19 disease. Overall, we formalize an optimal control framework adopting the model as state problem by acting on the administrations of vaccine-doses. An extensive campaign of numerical tests, featured in the Italian scenario and calibrated on available data from Dipartimento di Protezione Civile Italiana, shows that the presented framework can be a valuable tool to support the planning of vaccination campaigns minimizing specific goals.

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