论文标题
城市和距离对美国共同传播的影响
The effect of cities and distance on COVID-19 spreading in the United States
论文作者
论文摘要
COVID-19大流行通过多种空间和时间动力学随着时间的流逝而发展。不同地理区域之间相互作用的不同程度可能会导致复杂的扩散模式，因此这些区域之间的影响很难辨别。在这里，我们使用互相关分析在美国县一级的新Covid-19病例的时间演变中检测同步进化和潜在影响。我们的分析确定了两个主要时间段，具有相关行为的可区分特征。在第一阶段，很少有强大的相关性仅在城市地区之间出现。在流行病的第二阶段，强烈的相关性变得广泛，并且从城市到农村地区有明显的影响力。通常，两个县之间距离的影响要比县人口弱得多。这种分析可以提供有关该疾病进化的可能线索，并可以确定该国部分干预措施可能更有效地限制疾病扩散。
The COVID-19 pandemic has evolved over time through multiple spatial and temporal dynamics. The varying extent of interactions among different geographical areas can result to a complex pattern of spreading so that influences between these areas can be hard to discern. Here, we use cross-correlation analysis to detect synchronous evolution and potential inter-influences in the time evolution of new COVID-19 cases at the county level in the USA. Our analysis identified two main time periods with distinguishable features in the behavior of correlations. In the first phase, there were few strong correlations which only emerged between urban areas. In the second phase of the epidemic, strong correlations became widespread and there was a clear directionality of influence from urban to rural areas. In general, the effect of distance between two counties was much weaker than that of the counties population. Such analysis can provide possible clues on the evolution of the disease and may identify parts of the country where intervention may be more efficient in limiting the disease spread.
