论文标题
卡塔尔2022年的预言：非洲国家杯之后国际比赛的比赛时间减少
A foretaste of Qatar 2022: decreased playing time of internationals after the Africa Cup of Nations
论文作者
论文摘要
由于夏季卡塔尔的气候状况不佳，2022年FIFA世界杯将在欧洲主要联赛的持续赛季中进行。这项研究调查了国家队在这样的时间窗口中安排的比赛如何使用非洲国家杯（AFCON）的数据影响发布玩家的上场时间。对于2013年，2015年和2021 AFCON比赛的262名国际比赛，我们比较了使用Mann-Whitney-U测试在比赛之前和之后进行的比赛和会议记录的份额。我们发现游戏的显着降低了3.3％（p = .029，cl_effect_size = 44.5％）和3.1％的游戏分钟（p = .018，cl_effect_size = 44.9％）。对于前几个赛季的163名球员的子样本，我们发现这些球员在上个赛季的下半场往往玩得更多，导致游戏的净下降6.8％（p = .011，cl_effect_size = 42.3％）和7.1％的净降低（p = .007，p = .007，cl_effect_size = 41.9％）。 FIFA世界杯2022的结论仅应仔细得出，因为释放的球员数量相对较低。但是，调查结果表明，在本次比赛之后，释放俱乐部可能会遭受剩余的赛季。
Due to the unfavourable climatic conditions in Qatar during summertime, the FIFA World Cup 2022 will be played during on-going seasons of the major European leagues. This study investigates how national teams' tournaments scheduled at such a time window impact the playing time of released players, using data from the Africa Cups of Nations (AFCON). For 262 internationals playing at the 2013, 2015 and 2021 AFCON, we compared the share of possible games and minutes played before and after the tournament using Mann-Whitney-U tests. We found a significant decrease of 3.3% for games (p=.029, CL_Effect_Size=44.5%) and 3.1% for minutes played respectively (p=.018, CL_Effect_Size=44.9%). For a subsample of 163 players, which played for the same club the preceding seasons, we found that these players tend to have played more in the second half of the previous season, resulting in a net decrease of 6.8% for games (p=.011, CL_Effect_Size=42.3%) and 7.1% for minutes played (p=.007, CL_Effect_Size=41.9%). Conclusions for the FIFA World Cup 2022 should only be drawn carefully as the number of released players was comparatively low. However, the findings give some indication that releasing clubs might suffer the rest of the season after this tournament.
