论文标题
减轻多阶段比赛的坦克风险
Mitigating the risk of tanking in multi-stage tournaments
论文作者
论文摘要
多阶段的比赛包括一个圆形机队小组阶段，随后淘汰赛阶段在运动中无处不在。但是，如果至少有两个团队从小组前进到预定括号的淘汰阶段，则这种格式是不兼容的。开发了一个模型来量化这些比赛中坦克的风险。建议的方法适用于2022 FIFA世界杯，以发现如何通过更改小组标签（以前没有受到关注的改革）和小组比赛时间表来改善其设计。与以前关于一组勾结风险的结果相比，计划安排是一种令人惊讶的干预措施。通过这些策略，储罐的概率在25 \％左右的令人不安的高度不超过3个百分点。锦标赛组织者需要考虑对坦克的更根本的变化。
Multi-stage tournaments consisting of a round-robin group stage followed by a knockout phase are ubiquitous in sports. However, this format is incentive incompatible if at least two teams from a group advance to the knockout stage where the brackets are predetermined. A model is developed to quantify the risk of tanking in these contests. The suggested approach is applied to the 2022 FIFA World Cup to uncover how its design could have been improved by changing group labelling (a reform that has received no attention before) and the schedule of group matches. Scheduling is found to be a surprisingly weak intervention compared to previous results on the risk of collusion in a group. The probability of tanking, which is disturbingly high around 25\%, cannot be reduced by more than 3 percentage points via these policies. Tournament organisers need to consider more fundamental changes against tanking.
