论文标题

发射速率分布对源源轨道碎片模型稳定性的影响的动态系统分析

A Dynamical Systems Analysis of the Effects of the Launch Rate Distribution on the Stability of a Source-Sink Orbital Debris Model

论文作者

Pasiecznik, Celina, D'Ambrosio, Andrea, Jang, Daniel, Linares, Richard

论文摘要

预计未来的发射将显着增加活跃卫星的数量和低地球轨道(LEO)的碰撞风险。在本文中,使用动态系统理论方法来分析发射速率分布对LEO环境稳定性的影响。 LEO环境的多壳,三种源源模型,称为MOCAT-3用于MIT轨道能力评估工具3物种,用于研究该物种种群的演变。模型中包含的三个物种是活跃的卫星,废弃的卫星和碎屑。该模型的系数代表大气阻力,碰撞速率,平均卫星寿命,遗传后处置概率和主动碎屑去除速率。计算微分方程系统的解决方案,并对众多发射速率分布进行了平衡点的稳定性分析。平衡点的稳定性用于测试环境对在不稳定性阈值下发生的杂物生长(称为凯斯勒综合征)的敏感性。对环境对发射速率和碎屑种群扰动的反应进行了分析。计算了从平衡状态的碎屑总体中的最大扰动,该系统仍保持稳定的配置。生成了平衡点附近的相空间图。结果将有助于更好地了解狮子座的轨道能力和太空环境的稳定性,并为避免有害狮子座的有害拥塞提供改进的未来发射计划指南。

Future launches are projected to significantly increase both the number of active satellites and aggregate collision risk in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). In this paper, a dynamical systems theory approach is used to analyze the effect of launch rate distribution on the stability of the LEO environment. A multi-shell, three-species source-sink model of the LEO environment, referred to as MOCAT-3 for MIT Orbital Capacity Assessment Tool 3 Species, is used to study the evolution of the species populations. The three species included in the model are active satellites, derelict satellites, and debris. The model's coefficients represent atmospheric drag, collision rate, mean satellite lifetime, post-mission disposal probability, and active debris removal rate. Solutions of the system of differential equations are computed, and an analysis of the stability of the equilibrium points is conducted for numerous launch rate distributions. The stability of the equilibrium points is used to test the sensitivity of the environment to run-away debris growth, known as Kessler syndrome, that occurs at the instability threshold. An analysis of the environment's response to perturbations in launch rate and debris population is conducted. The maximum perturbation in the debris population from the equilibrium state, for which the system remains in a stable configuration, is calculated. Plots of the phase space about the equilibrium points are generated. The results will help to better understand the orbital capacity of LEO and the stability of the space environment, as well as provide improved guidelines on future launch plans to avoid detrimental congestion of LEO.

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