论文标题
气候变化和印度沙漠的潜在灭亡
Climate Change and Potential Demise of the Indian Deserts
论文作者
论文摘要
与潮湿的范围变得更干燥，在这里，使用观察和气候模型模拟，我们表明，在1901年至2015年期间，印度和巴基斯坦半干旱西北地区的平均降雨量增长了10％至50％，预计将在适度的温室气体下增加50至200％，E.G，E.G，Sp2 4.5。温室气体强迫主要驱动着印度夏季季风（ISM）降雨的向西扩张，这是由于印度洋温暖池的向西扩张所促进了热带融合区（ITCZ）的向西扩张。虽然必须采取适应性灾难的适应策略，但收获降雨量增加将导致食品生产率的显着提高，从而导致该地区人们社会经济状况的变革性变化。
In contrast to the wet gets wetter and dry gets drier paradigm, here, using observations and climate model simulations, we show that the mean rainfall over the semi-arid northwest parts of India and Pakistan has increased by 10 to 50 percent during 1901 to 2015 and is expected to increase by 50 to 200 percent under moderate greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios, e.g, SSP2 4.5. The GHG forcing primarily drives the westward expansion of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall and is a result of a westward expansion of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ), facilitated by a westward expansion of the Indian Ocean warm pool. While an adaptation strategy to increased hydrological disasters is a must, harvesting the increased rainfall would lead to a significant increase in food productivity, bringing transformative changes in the socio-economic condition of people in the region.
