论文标题
中国的SARS-COV-2流行期望是什么？
What is expected for China's SARS-CoV-2 epidemic?
论文作者
论文摘要
最近，中国宣布其“零融资”政策将结束，这将为该国的卫生系统带来严重的挑战。在这里，我们提供了简单的计算，使我们能够使用一种高度传染性的疾病来估计死亡结果的预期，这将使大多数高度疫苗接种的人群暴露于病毒中。我们使用有关疫苗接种严重结果的风险减少的最新发现，并估计死亡1.1 m，其中60％是男性。在我们的模型中，有84％的死亡发生在55岁以上的人中。在这种情况下，由于减弱，这种保护完全丢失，并且流行菌株的感染死亡率达到与流行病开始时观察到的水平相似的水平，死亡人数可能在55岁或以上的情况下达到2.4 m，93％。
Recently, China announced that its "zero-covid" policy would end, which will bring serious challenges to the country's health system. In here we provide simple calculations that allows us to provide an estimate of what is expected as an outcome in terms of fatalities, using the fact that it is a highly contagious disease that will expose most of a highly vaccinated population to the virus. We use recent findings regarding the amount of reduction in the risk of severe outcome achieved by vaccination and arrive to an estimate of 1.1 m deaths, 60% of these are males. In our model, 84% percent of deaths occur in individuals with age 55 years or older. In a scenario in which this protection is completely lost due to waning and the infection fatality rate of the prevalent strain reaches similar levels to the observed in the beginning of the epidemic, the death toll could reach 2.4 m, 93% in 55 years or older.
