论文标题

管理专家在政策过程及以后的分歧

Managing Expert Disagreement for the Policy Process and Beyond

论文作者

Hahn, Ulrike, Madsen, Jens Koed, Reed, Chris

论文摘要

在本文中,我们概述了在科学文献中存在实质性分歧的情况下,将科学辩论传达给政策制定者和其他利益相关者的新提案。在这种情况下,重要的是要为决策者提供一个有用的平衡摘要,该摘要代表了大型田地的意见,并透明地传达实际的证据库。为此,我们通过集体智能过程提出了论证地图的汇编;然后将这些地图提供给相关研究界的广泛样本,以评估IGM风格的IGM风格民意调查(请参阅Igmchicago.org),该样本在更广泛的科学界危险地提供了对该问题的意见观点。然后,决策者收到这两个文物(地图和民意调查)作为他们的专家建议。这样的过程将有助于克服传统专家建议过程的资源限制,同时还通过利用研究人员的专业知识来提供更大的平衡,这是领域内特定理论的主要支持者的专业知识。而且,实际证据基础将是透明的。在本文中,我们提出了一个试点项目,该项目逐步介绍了此类政策建议计划的地图构建部分。我们通过在OVA中实施(参数工具的在线可视化ova.arg-tech.org)详细介绍了一个参数图,其中遇到的问题是带有有关传达概率的行为文献的示例证据,这是大流行中的核心问题。

In this paper, we outline a new proposal for communicating scientific debate to policymakers and other stakeholders in circumstances where there is substantial disagreement within the scientific literature. In those circumstances, it seems important to provide policy makers both with a useful, balanced summary that is representative of opinion in the field large, and to transparently communicate the actual evidence-base. To this end, we propose the compilation of argument maps through a collective intelligence process; these maps are then given to a wide sample of the relevant research community for evaluation and summary opinion in an IGM style IGM style poll (see igmchicago.org), which provides a representative view of opinion on the issue at stake within the wider scientific community. Policymakers then receive these two artefacts (map and poll) as their expert advice. Such a process would help overcome the resource limitations of the traditional expert advice process, while also providing greater balance by drawing on the expertise of researchers beyond the leading proponents of particular theories within a field. And, the actual evidence base would be transparent. In this paper, we present a pilot project stepping through the map building component of such a policy advice scheme. We detail process, products, and issues encountered by implementing in the OVA (Online Visualisation of Argument tool, ova.arg-tech.org) an argument map with sample evidence from the behavioural literature on communicating probabilities, as a central issue within pandemic.

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